Safety Study of a Glycogen Synthase Kinase 3 (GSK3) Inhibitor in Patients With Alzheimer´s Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningsclerosissyndromethe patientonset
  Phrases that lowered it: mildmoderatealzheimerpatientsdrugs
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Explore the Potential Benefit of Safinamide on Cognitive Impairment Associated With Parkinson's Disease NCT01211587 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Study of Bryostatin in Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease Subjects Not On Memantine NCT03560245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2, Randomized, Prospective Double-Blind, Single-Center, Placebo-controlled Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Target Engagement, and Efficacy of PrimeC in Patients With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease. NCT06185543 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 43% of active trials terminated
• Study of LM11A-31-BHS in Mild-moderate AD Patients NCT03069014 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• ANAVEX2-73 for Treatment of Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03790709 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.