Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellqtcardiacbaselinesquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: drugparticipantsclinicalweeks beforerespiratory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 23 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Study of NE3107 in Probable Alzheimer's Disease NCT04669028 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.