A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimermriadbraindisease
  Phrases that lowered it: the trialparticipanthealthyparticipantsmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 11 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density NCT03493282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923 NCT04805983 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT02322021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.