Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mriimagingsclerosisdiseasebrain
  Phrases that lowered it: healthymild toto moderateto evaluateevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate the Effect of Rilapladib (SB-659032) in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01428453 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.