A Phase 2a Study to Evaluate the Effect of Rilapladib (SB-659032) in Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimersubject hasdementiacognitivethe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: singlesubjects whoevaluate thefemalemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 429 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1483 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 80 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study to Evaluate the Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Amyloid Beta Oligomer Displacement Into CSF in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease NCT03522129 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density NCT03493282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK239512 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01009255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.