Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Receptor Occupancy of BMS-984923
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (201 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-04-24, after 2021-03-25 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-04-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientgreaterivheadascending
Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsaminotransferaseulnadministration -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 721 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 142 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- basic science (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 721 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 142 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
- Pilot Clinical Study of CT1812 in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Using EEG NCT04735536 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Effect of CT1812 Treatment on Brain Synaptic Density NCT03493282 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of AZD0530 (Saracatinib) in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01864655 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.