A Phase 3 Study of NE3107 in Probable Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: adalzheimersubjects withbrainthe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: type diabetesinsulindrugsformclinical
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 60 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Tetra PICASSO AD Trial: Study to Evaluate Effects of BPN14770 in Early Alzheimer's Subjects NCT03817684 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Dose-Finding Study To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of E2609 in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease (Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease) and Mild to Moderate Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT02322021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Crenezumab Versus Placebo in Preclinical Presenilin1 (PSEN1) E280A Mutation Carriers to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety in the Treatment of Autosomal-Dominant Alzheimer's Disease (AD), Including a Placebo-Treated Non-Carrier Cohort NCT01998841 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• Bryostatin Treatment of Moderately Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT04538066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.