Bryostatin Treatment of Moderately Severe Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: scoreimagingalzheimervascularsubject
  Phrases that lowered it: multiplevisitinclusivegooduse of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Bryostatin in Moderately Severe to Severe Alzheimer's Disease Subjects Not On Memantine NCT03560245 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK239512 in Alzheimer's Disease NCT01009255 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Safety, Tolerability, PK and PD of Posiphen® in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02925650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Piromelatine 20 mg in Participants With Mild Dementia Due to Alzheimer's Disease NCT05267535 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.