A Randomized SAD and MAD Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of RPh201 in Healthy Subjects and in Adults With Alzheimer's Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (95 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeradsubjectsdementiathe subject
  Phrases that lowered it: healthysafety ofvolunteersmalescreening
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of RPh201 Treatment in Individuals With Alzheimer's Disease With or Without Coexisting Cerebrovascular Disease NCT03462121 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Ascending Dose Study in Healthy Volunteers and Patients With Alzheimer's Disease NCT05804383 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• To Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacological Effects of PU AD in Subjects With Mild AD Dementia NCT04311515 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Bryostatin Treatment of Moderately Severe Alzheimer's Disease NCT04538066 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Randomized I/II Phase Study of ALZT-OP1 Combination Therapy in Alzheimer's Disease and Normal Healthy Volunteers NCT04570644 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.