BAY81-8781, I.V. Aspirin in the Indication of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2014-07-31, after 2011-03-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronaryacutearteryhourspain
Phrases that lowered it: study drugpatientsopen label500mellitus -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.3% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 365 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 103611 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 365 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 126 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 103611 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21753 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aspirin, lysine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Facilitation Through Aggrastat By drOpping or Shortening Infusion Line in Patients With ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Compared to or on Top of PRasugrel Loading dOse NCT01336348 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
- A Medical Research Study to Evaluate the Effects of ACT-246475 in Adults With Coronary Artery Disease NCT03384966 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Optimal Dose of Acetylsalicylic Acid After Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting NCT02482857 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Anfibatide Phase Ib-IIa Clinical Trial NCT01585259 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Medical Research Study to Evaluate the Effects of ACT-246475 in Adults With Heart Attack NCT03487445 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.