Trial of Erlotinib, Gemcitabine and Cisplatin in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 24% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2011-05-31, after 2009-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapymetastaticpancreaticct
Phrases that lowered it: patient withpatient whotrialwho receivedprevious -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12616 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2745 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 21.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cisplatin, erlotinib, gemcitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- S-1, Gemcitabine and Erlotinib for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01693419 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine With or Without Capecitabine and/or Radiation Therapy or Gemcitabine With or Without Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT00634725 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Trial Evaluating Combined Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT01204372 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
- Gemcitabine, Capecitabine, and Erlotinib in Treating Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT00885066 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Erlotinib, Gemcitabine and Nab-Paclitaxel in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT01010945 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.