A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of MK2578 for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Kidney Disease (MK2578-003-AM03-EXT12)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-05-31, after 2009-06-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientcancerpatientsphase iilife expectancy
Phrases that lowered it: and safetysafety ofmaleefficacy andstudy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 551 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 71.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 551 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 291 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 6276 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1166 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 71.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- epoetin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of MK2578 in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Not on Dialysis (2578-002) NCT00968617 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Molidustat for Treatment of Renal Anemia in Peritoneal Dialysis Subjects NCT03418168 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Maintenance Treatment of Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Hemodialysis Subjects on Epoetin Alfa / Beta Treatment Versus BAY85-3934 NCT01975818 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- MK-2060 and Clopidogrel Co-administration Safety and Tolerability Study in Participants With End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) (MK-2060-008) NCT05335005 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Long Term Extension Study for the Maintenance Treatment of Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Hemodialysis Subjects on Epoetin Alfa / Beta Treatment Versus BAY85-3934 NCT02064426 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.