A Study of MK2578 in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease Who Are Not on Dialysis (2578-002)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-05-31, after 2009-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientcancerpatientscellagent
Phrases that lowered it: safetymaleopenbloodlabel -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 605 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 254 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 605 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 254 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4599 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 893 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 14.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- urogenital, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- darbepoetin alfa
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of MK2578 for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Kidney Disease (MK2578-003-AM03-EXT12) NCT00924781 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Maintenance Treatment of Anemia in Pre-dialysis Subjects With Chronic Kidney Disease on Darbepoetin Treatment Versus BAY85-3934 NCT02021409 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- Maintenance Treatment of Anemia Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in Hemodialysis Subjects on Epoetin Alfa / Beta Treatment Versus BAY85-3934 NCT01975818 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
- A Study of Intermittent Oral Dosing of ASP1517 in ESA-untreated Chronic Kidney Disease Patients With Anemia NCT02964936 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- 15141 Fixed Dose Correction / naïve and Pre Dialysis (Europe and Asia Pacific) NCT02021370 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.