Varenicline and Bupropion for Smoking Cessation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (273 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-04-30, after 2009-09-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronaryunstablebraindefinedsubject has
Phrases that lowered it: smokingdaysmoderatethe study14 -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 6 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 195 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 117 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34522 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7052 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 58.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- bupropion, varenicline
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Human Laboratory Study of Varenicline and Bupropion for Nicotine Dependence NCT00749658 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
- Extended Varenicline Treatment for Smoking Among Cancer Patients NCT01756885 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Varenicline in Combination With Nicotine Replacement Therapy for Smoking Cessation NCT01444131 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Combining Varenicline and Bupropion for Smoking Cessation NCT00943618 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
- Concurrent Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation NCT01303861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.