Concurrent Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (146 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 40.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartkidneycardiacbraindisease
  Phrases that lowered it: smokingnicotineparticipantsasthmacigarettes
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 90 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 194 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 37162 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 88371 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of a Tailored Smoking Cessation Treatment Algorithm Based on Initial Treatment Response and Genotype NCT00894166 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Combination Bupropion / Varenicline for Smoking Cessation in Male Smokers NCT01806779 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Tailored Smoking Cessation Treatment for LIVE FOR LIFE® Participants NCT01560507 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials terminated
• Combination Nicotine Patch / Lorcaserin for Smoking Cessation NCT02906644 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Varenicline and Bupropion for Smoking Cessation NCT00935818 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.