Busulfan, Cyclophosphamide, and Autologous Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 29% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2013-02-28, after 2009-06-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellchemotherapystagecellstransplant
Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipleplasmakg45 -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 61 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 61 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 21 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 11737 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3261 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- busulfan, cyclophosphamide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- TMI With HD Mel in ASCT for R/R Multiple Myeloma (BMT-03) NCT02043847 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Treated T Cells Followed by a Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Patients With Multiple Myeloma NCT00938626 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Bendamustine and Melphalan in Myeloma NCT03187223 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Total Marrow Irradiation With High Dose Melphalan Prior to Autologous Transplant for Multiple Myeloma NCT02043860 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
- Trial of Two Stem Cell Doses To Reduce Transplant Induced Symptom Burden NCT00651937 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.