Trial of RAD001 and Erlotinib With Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellradiationchroniccancerchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoarthritisrheumatoid24ocular
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 336 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Carboplatin, Cetuximab and RAD001 in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT01283334 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• RAD001, Cisplatin and Concurrent Radiation for Locally Advanced, Inoperable Head and Neck Cancer NCT01057277 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab in Recurrent and/or Metastatic SCCHN NCT03226756 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib and RAD001 (Everolimus) in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT00640978 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Ibrutinib Combined With Nivolumab or Cetuximab to Treat Recurrent/Metastatic HNSCC NCT03646461 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.