Erlotinib and RAD001 (Everolimus) in Patients With Previously Treated Advanced Pancreatic Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2010-03-31, after 2008-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “safety”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients mustcancerdeterminedoublesubjects
Phrases that lowered it: mgsevereobjectivesparticipation instudy treatment -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 189 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 133 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 21.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 189 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 468 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 250 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- erlotinib, everolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Trial of RAD001 and Erlotinib With Recurrent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT00942734 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Selumetinib and Erlotinib Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced or Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT01222689 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- A Study of Carboplatin, Cetuximab and RAD001 in Advanced Head and Neck Cancer NCT01283334 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Phase 1 Erlotinib and Dovitinib (TKI258) in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT01515969 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Carboplatin, Paclitaxel, and Everolimus in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Cancer of Unknown Primary NCT00936702 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.