Phase 1 Erlotinib and Dovitinib (TKI258) in Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellnon smallserum
  Phrases that lowered it: solidimmunotherapypatients whomultipleparticipants
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 47.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 3909 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1928 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dovitinib Lactate, Gemcitabine Hydrochloride, and Capecitabine in Treating Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors, Pancreatic Cancer and Biliary Cancers NCT01497392 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study of Dovitinib (TKI258) in Adenoid Cystic Carcinoma NCT01524692 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Dose Escalation Study Investigating Everolimus and Dovitinib in Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cancer NCT01714765 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Platform Trial of Novel Regimens Versus Standard of Care (SoC) in Participants With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Sub-study 1 NCT05553808 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.