Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-03-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: carcinomaulntype diabeteschemotherapyradiation
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningdaysadvanced28solid
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 275 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva®) in Combination With OSI-906 in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Activating Mutations of the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Gene NCT01221077 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib NCT01487265 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Docetaxel + Plinabulin Compared to Docetaxel + Placebo in Patients With Advanced NSCLC NCT02504489 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Trial of AMG 479, Everolimus (RAD001) and Panitumumab in Patients With Advanced Cancer - QUILT-3.007 NCT01061788 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Atezolizumab and Bevacizumab in EGFR Mutant NSCLC in Patients With Progressive Disease After Receiving Osimertinib NCT04099836 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.