Study of Erlotinib (Tarceva®) in Combination With OSI-906 in Patients With Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) With Activating Mutations of the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Gene

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancerventricularcarcinomacell
  Phrases that lowered it: gelscreeningmalewith advancedintrauterine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 118 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 277 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study of EGF816 and Gefitinib in TKI-naïve EGFR-mutant Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03292133 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib NCT01487265 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Osimertinib Plus Chemotherapy in Uncommon EGFRm NSCLC NCT05215951 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials terminated
• A Study of ASP8273 vs. Erlotinib or Gefitinib in First-line Treatment of Patients With Stage IIIB/IV Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Tumors With EGFR Activating Mutations NCT02588261 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.