Trial of Erlotinib and BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Previously Sensitive to Erlotinib

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-12-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: erlotinibpriortreatment withconcurrentadvanced
  Phrases that lowered it: bowelpatientcrohn diseaseulcerativemoderate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 58.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial of Gefitinib in Combination With BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, With Enrichment for Patients Whose Tumours Harbour Molecular Alterations of PI3K Pathway and Known to Overexpress EGFR NCT01570296 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120, Carboplatin, and Pemetrexed Disodium in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01723800 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• BKM120 + mFOLFOX6 in Advanced Solid Tumors With Expansion Cohort Pancreatic Cancer NCT01571024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• BKM120 + Carboplatin + Paclitaxel for Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01297452 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.