PI3K Inhibitor BKM120, Carboplatin, and Pemetrexed Disodium in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lungventriculareffectsheartsmall
  Phrases that lowered it: trialpatientsadvancedcombinationhormone
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 26 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT01816984 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 and Docetaxel in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor That is Locally Advanced, Cannot Be Removed By Surgery, or Metastatic NCT01540253 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Gefitinib in Combination With BKM120 in Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, With Enrichment for Patients Whose Tumours Harbour Molecular Alterations of PI3K Pathway and Known to Overexpress EGFR NCT01570296 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• BKM120 + mFOLFOX6 in Advanced Solid Tumors With Expansion Cohort Pancreatic Cancer NCT01571024 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• STAR Cape+BKM120 MBC With Brain Met NCT02000882 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.