PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ventricularheartqtcardiacfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: tumorsdrugtrialpatients whodiseases
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120, Carboplatin, and Pemetrexed Disodium in Treating Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT01723800 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Activity and Safety Study of BKM120 in Monotherapy in Patient With Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer Recurrent or Progressive NCT01737450 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• PI3K Inhibitor BKM120 and Docetaxel in Treating Patients With Advanced Solid Tumor That is Locally Advanced, Cannot Be Removed By Surgery, or Metastatic NCT01540253 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• BKM120 and Fulvestrant for Treating Postmenopausal Patients With Estrogen Receptor-Positive Stage IV Breast Cancer NCT01339442 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• STAR Cape+BKM120 MBC With Brain Met NCT02000882 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.