Docetaxel + Plinabulin Compared to Docetaxel + Placebo in Patients With Advanced NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcstageplacebolungchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsadvancedarmmm109
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 14545 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ASA404 or Placebo in Combination With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin as First-Line Treatment for Stage IIIb/IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00662597 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of Maintenance OSI-906 Plus Erlotinib (Tarceva®), or Placebo Plus Erlotinib in Patients With Nonprogression Following 4 Cycles of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT01186861 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study of ASA404 or Placebo in Combination With Docetaxel in Second-line Treatment for (Stage IIIb/IV) Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT00738387 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Platform Trial of Novel Regimens Versus Standard of Care (SoC) in Participants With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) - Sub-study 1 NCT05553808 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
• AB-16B5 Combined With Docetaxel in Subjects With Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (EGIA-002) NCT04364620 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.