Busulfan-fludarabine Conditioning and T-cell Depleted Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Patients With Advanced Hematologic Malignancies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lymphomacellrecurrentleukemiarefractory
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipleefficacyevaluatechronic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 41.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 39 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Conditioning Treatment With Umbilical Cord Blood Transplant for Hematologic Malignancies NCT01622556 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Allogeneic Transplantation Using Timed Sequential Busulfan and Fludarabine Conditioning NCT01572662 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• IMRT-TMI With Fludarabine as Myeloablative Conditioning for Allogeneic HSCT NCT03696537 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials terminated
• Reduced Intensity Regimen vs Myeloablative Regimen for Myeloid Leukemia or Myelodysplastic Syndrome (BMT CTN 0901) NCT01339910 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated
• Study of Nonmyeloablative Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplant With High-dose Posttransplantation Cyclophosphamide in Hematopoietic Malignancies Including Those That Are Challenging to Engraft NCT03187756 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.