Sunphenon EGCg (Epigallocatechin-Gallate) in the Early Stage of Alzheimer´s Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-02-28, after 2009-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 60 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 45 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 44 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, psychiatry
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- epigallocatechin gallate
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Progression Rate of MSA Under EGCG Supplementation as Anti-Aggregation-Approach NCT02008721 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- GV1001 Subcutaneous(SC) for the Treatment of Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease (AD) NCT05189210 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- Effects of EGCG (Epigallocatechin Gallate) in Huntington's Disease (ETON-Study) NCT01357681 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- An Efficacy and Safety Study of Sodium Oligo-mannurarate (GV-971) Capsule for the Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease NCT02293915 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
- Clinical Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GV1001 in Alzheimer Patients NCT03184467 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.