Effects of EGCG (Epigallocatechin Gallate) in Huntington's Disease (ETON-Study)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 17% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-05-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cognitivediseasecellscoredepression
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andevaluate theto evaluateconsumptionthe efficacy
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate the Effect of SAGE-718 on Cognitive Function in Participants With Huntington's Disease (HD) NCT05107128 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• 28-Day Study of SAGE-718 on Functioning Capacity in Participants With Huntington's Disease NCT05358821 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Sunphenon EGCg (Epigallocatechin-Gallate) in the Early Stage of Alzheimer´s Disease NCT00951834 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Sunphenon Epigallocatechin-Gallate (EGCg) in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy NCT01183767 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Safety of Polyphenon E in Multiple Sclerosis Pilot Study NCT00836719 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.