Study to Assess dHER2+AS15 Cancer Vaccine Given in Combination With Lapatinib to Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerpatienther2trastuzumabtumor
  Phrases that lowered it: maledisordercontraceptiveintrauterinehepatic
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• DETECT III - A Multicenter, Phase III Study to Compare Standard Therapy +/- Lapatinib in HER2-ve MBC-Patients With HER2+ve CTCs NCT01619111 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Tolerability of Eribulin Plus Lapatinib in Patients With Metastatic Breast Cancer (E-VITA) NCT01534455 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in First-line HER2-positive Locally Advanced/MBC Patients Resistant to Trastuzumab+Pertuzumab NCT05744375 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study With Pembrolizumab in Combination With Dual Anti-HER2 Blockade With Trastuzumab and Pertuzumab in Early Breast Cancer Patients With Molecular HER2-enriched Intrinsic Subtype (Keyriched-1) NCT03988036 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.