Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in First-line HER2-positive Locally Advanced/MBC Patients Resistant to Trastuzumab+Pertuzumab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 25% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-07-17, after 2023-09-28 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: her2metastaticbreast cancerpatienttrastuzumab
Phrases that lowered it: participantsasthmaaminotransferaseevaluatewomen -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 68.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 14.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4277 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2210 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 68.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- trastuzumab deruxtecan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- DS-8201a for trEatment of aBc, BRain Mets, And Her2[+] Disease NCT04420598 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Study of U3-1402 (Patritumab Deruxtecan) in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04699630 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
- Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
- Phase Ib/II Trial of coPANlisib in Combination With Trastuzumab in HER2-positive Breast Cancer. (Panther Study) NCT02705859 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Her2-positive Lung Cancer Treated With Dedicated Drug NCT03845270 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.