DS-8201a for trEatment of aBc, BRain Mets, And Her2[+] Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: her2breast cancermetastaticsubjectsbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whomalefemaleopen labelinvestigator
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trastuzumab Deruxtecan in First-line HER2-positive Locally Advanced/MBC Patients Resistant to Trastuzumab+Pertuzumab NCT05744375 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
• A Study of U3-1402 (Patritumab Deruxtecan) in Subjects With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04699630 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• HER3-DXd in Breast Cancer and NSCLC Brain Metastases and Solid Tumor Leptomeningeal Disease NCT05865990 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• ABemaciclib, ET ± paclItaxel in aGgressive HR+/HER2- MBC trIaL NCT04603183 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Pembrolizumab and Gemcitabine in HER2-negative ABC NCT03025880 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.