Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Activity of AZD5069 When Given as a Single Dose to Healthy Male and/or Female Subjects

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 11% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingsubjectstolerabilityand pharmacodynamicspharmacodynamics of
  Phrases that lowered it: healthybodyvolunteersinglemale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 351 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD5069 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01051505 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Japanese Single and Multiple Ascending Dose (JSMAD), Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) Study of AZD5069 NCT01100047 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD2423 in Healthy Volunteers NCT00940212 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of Single Doses ofAZD2551 NCT00860353 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics (PK) (Including Food Effect) of Oral Doses of AZD5847 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01037725 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.