Japanese Single and Multiple Ascending Dose (JSMAD), Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) Study of AZD5069

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tolerabilityascendingplacebothe safetydoses
  Phrases that lowered it: healthybodykgmass indexday
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 373 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 811 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: basic science (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Japanese Single and Multiple Ascending Dose, Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetic (PK) & Pharmacodynamic (PD) Study of AZD7687 NCT01217905 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability and Activity of AZD5069 When Given as a Single Dose to Healthy Male and/or Female Subjects NCT00953888 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Ascending Doses of AZD5069 in Healthy Volunteers NCT01051505 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• AZD Single Ascending Dose Study In Healthy Japanese Subjects NCT01028040 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Study With AZD9164 Given for 13 Days in Healthy Male and Female Japanese Subjects NCT01096563 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.