A Trial Comparing Two Therapies: Basal Insulin/Glargine, Exenatide and Metformin Therapy (BET) or Basal Insulin/Glargine, Bolus Insulin Lispro and Metformin Therapy (BBT) in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (803 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: basalstabletherapyconcurrenttaking
  Phrases that lowered it: metformindayinsulintype diabetestopical
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 43.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100462 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15902 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Research Study Comparing a New Medicine Fast-acting Insulin Aspart to Another Already Available Medicine NovoRapid/NovoLog in People With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03268005 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Trial Comparing Efficacy and Safety of Insulin Degludec and Insulin Glargine in Insulin naïve Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes NCT01849289 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Research Study in People With Type 2 Diabetes to Compare Two Types of Insulin: Insulin 287 and Insulin Glargine NCT03922750 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
• A Study To Compare the Effects of Insulin Peglispro and Glargine on Insulin Sensitivity and Meal Time Insulin Requirements in Type 2 Diabetics NCT02197520 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study of Insulin Efsitora Alfa (LY3209590) as a Weekly Basal Insulin Compared to Insulin Glargine in Adult Participants With Type 2 Diabetes on Multiple Daily Injections NCT05462756 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.