Efficacy of Antidepressants in Chronic Back Pain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (102 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2015-12-31, after 2010-01-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: paintrialtherapy forchroniccognitive
Phrases that lowered it: antidepressantefficacycontrolledconditionsmajor -
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 66 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: government (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2416 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 35 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 66 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2416 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 482 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 16.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- benztropine, clomipramine, desipramine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Treating Negative Affect in Low Back Pain Patients NCT04747314 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
- Effect of Milnacipran in Chronic Neuropathic Low Back Pain NCT01225068 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- A Six Week Study Of The Pain Relieving Effects Of Celecoxib 200 Mg Twice Daily Compared To Tramadol 50 Mg Four Times Daily In Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain NCT00662558 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- A Two-Arm Study Comparing the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of Acetaminophen and Tramadol Combination BID Versus Placebo for the Treatment of Acute Low Back Pain NCT00643383 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of S (+) - Ibuprofen in the Treatment of Mechanical Low Back Pain NCT04772781 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.