Sickle Cell Disease Conditioning for Bone Marrow Transplant

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 37% for any early termination, 27% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-01-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celldonorchemotherapymrimarrow
  Phrases that lowered it: singleimpairmentkgdrugchildren
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 39.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2256 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 70 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Abatacept for GVHD Prophylaxis After Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Pediatric Sickle Cell Disease NCT02867800 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Evaluating the Safety and Effectiveness of Bone Marrow Transplants in Children With Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 0601) NCT00745420 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Non-Myeloablative Bone Marrow Transplant for Patients With Sickle Cell Anemia and Other Blood Disorders NCT00489281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Stem Cell Transplantation for Sickle Cell Anemia NCT01877837 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• A Reduced Toxicity Allogeneic Unrelated Donor Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) for Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT01279616 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.