A Reduced Toxicity Allogeneic Unrelated Donor Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) for Severe Sickle Cell Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 33% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2015-01-31, after 2010-09-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: celldonortransplantallogeneictherapy
Phrases that lowered it: multiplejointssafety ofasthmadisorder -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 40% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 7 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Maximum age: 21 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 12 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- not given (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 21 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 10 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 40% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 12 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 7 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 47419 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 10962 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 96.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- busulfan, cyclophosphamide, fludarabine, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, rituximab, tacrolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- SCD-Haplo: Phase II Study of HLA-Haploidentical SCT for Aggressive SCD NCT02013375 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Stem Cell Transplantation for Sickle Cell Anemia NCT01877837 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- HLA Haploidentical Bone Marrow Transplant in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT03240731 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Allo-HCT MUD for Non-malignant Red Blood Cell (RBC) Disorders: Sickle Cell, Thal, and DBA: Reduced Intensity Conditioning, Co-tx MSCs NCT00957931 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Non-Myeloablative Bone Marrow Transplant for Patients With Sickle Cell Anemia and Other Blood Disorders NCT00489281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.