HLA Haploidentical Bone Marrow Transplant in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-04-08, after 2017-08-10 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: donorcellfractionfailurehla
Phrases that lowered it: adultadministrationbased onabnormalparent -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 13 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- other (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 13 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 40 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 5 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- SCD-Haplo: Phase II Study of HLA-Haploidentical SCT for Aggressive SCD NCT02013375 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials terminated
- Stem Cell Transplantation for Sickle Cell Anemia NCT01877837 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Non-Myeloablative Bone Marrow Transplant for Patients With Sickle Cell Anemia and Other Blood Disorders NCT00489281 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
- A Reduced Toxicity Allogeneic Unrelated Donor Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) for Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT01279616 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
- Nonmyeloablative Conditioning for Mismatched Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT02678143 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.