Nonmyeloablative Conditioning for Mismatched Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation for Severe Sickle Cell Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (3,836 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2021-11-16, after 2016-04-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: donorcelltransplanthlafunction
Phrases that lowered it: painperiodevaluate theto evaluatecross -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 349 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19648 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 349 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 129 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 6 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 98051 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 19648 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- alemtuzumab, cyclophosphamide, fludarabine, mycophenolate mofetil, mycophenolic acid, sirolimus
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Transplantation for Patients With Sickle Cell Disease From Mismatched Family Donors of Bone Marrow NCT02757885 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- HLA Haploidentical Bone Marrow Transplant in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease NCT03240731 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- Siplizumab for Sickle Cell Disease Transplant NCT06078696 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
- Bone Marrow Transplantation vs Standard of Care in Patients With Severe Sickle Cell Disease (BMT CTN 1503) NCT02766465 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Haploidentical Bone Marrow Transplantation in Sickle Cell Patients (BMTCTN1507) NCT03263559 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.