A Dose-ranging Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of JNJ-42160443 as add-on Treatment in Patients With Osteoarthritis-related Pain

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painstableplacebobrainventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: kneeto comparejnjcompare theweeks before
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 339 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 62 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-42160443 in Patients With Moderate to Severe, Chronic Knee Pain From Osteoarthritis NCT01094262 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated
• A Clinical Study to Investigate the Effect on Pain Relief of a Single Dose of JNJ-39439335 in Patients With Chronic Osteoarthritis Pain of the Knee NCT00933582 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Analgesic Efficacy and Safety of V120083 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis (OA) of the Knee NCT03028870 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• A Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of Intra-articular CNTX-4975-05 (Capsaicin) vs Placebo in Subjects With OA Knee Pain NCT03429049 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-39439335 in Patients With Osteoarthritis NCT01343303 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.