A Multiple Dose Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of JNJ-39439335 in Patients With Osteoarthritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (40 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: multiplesafety tolerabilitytolerability pharmacokineticsand pharmacodynamicspain
  Phrases that lowered it: kneehealthyscreeningosteoarthritisbody
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 43 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: not given (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Clinical Study to Investigate the Effect on Pain Relief of a Single Dose of JNJ-39439335 in Patients With Chronic Osteoarthritis Pain of the Knee NCT00933582 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• A Dose-ranging Study of the Safety and Effectiveness of JNJ-42160443 as add-on Treatment in Patients With Osteoarthritis-related Pain NCT00973141 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• A Study on Visco-antalgic Intra-articular Administration in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02740231 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study on the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Intra-articular Administration of JTA-004 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04333160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of JNJ-42160443 in Patients With Moderate to Severe, Chronic Knee Pain From Osteoarthritis NCT01094262 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.