A Study on Visco-antalgic Intra-articular Administration in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-04-27, after 2016-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellstagemonthsdiseaseprior
Phrases that lowered it: kneeosteoarthritisefficacyoapatients -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: 79 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 79 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- none matched
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase III Study on the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Intra-articular Administration of JTA-004 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04333160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- Pivotal Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of SP5M001 Inj. as Compared to Synovian Inj. in Patients With Mild to Moderate Knee Osteoarthritis NCT06307847 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- Lyophilized and Micronized Particulate Human Amniotic and Umbilical Cord (TTAX03) for KL Grade 3-4 Knee OA NCT05079035 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- A Safety and Tolerability Study of UBX0101 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT03513016 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Efficacy and Safety of VX-150 in Subjects With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT02660424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.