Lyophilized and Micronized Particulate Human Amniotic and Umbilical Cord (TTAX03) for KL Grade 3-4 Knee OA

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 35 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painchronicsubjectacutesingle
  Phrases that lowered it: kneearthritisulnbonejoint
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 9 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Intra-articular Injections vs Placebo in Patients With Pain From Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT01887678 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Tolerability Study of UBX0101 in Patients With Osteoarthritis of the Knee NCT03513016 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Safety and Efficacy of Intra-articular Injections of TPX-100 in Subjects With Mild to Moderate Patello-Femoral Osteoarthritis Involving Both Knees NCT01925261 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• Microfragmented Adipose Tissue Compared to Corticosteroid Injection for the Treatment of Knee Osteoarthritis NCT05660772 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Phase III Study on the Safety and Efficacy of a Single Intra-articular Administration of JTA-004 in Symptomatic Knee Osteoarthritis NCT04333160 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.