Safety and Efficacy Study of MDV3100 in Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Who Have Been Previously Treated With Docetaxel-based Chemotherapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapyplacebotreatedcancerdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: prostatecastrationtestosteronesafetyclinical
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 626 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 361 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of MDV3100 to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy of in Prostate Cancer Patients NCT01284920 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of MDV3100 in Combination With Docetaxel in Men With Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT01565928 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Orteronel Plus Prednisone in Participants With Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer. NCT01193257 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• A Safety and Efficacy Study of Oral MDV3100 in Chemotherapy-Naive Patients With Progressive Metastatic Prostate Cancer NCT01212991 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Abiraterone in Participants With Prostate Cancer Who Have Received Docetaxel NCT01795703 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.