Safety and Efficacy Study of Sirolimus in Complicated Vascular Anomalies

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 36% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patients mustfunctiontumorserumdl
  Phrases that lowered it: mgclinicaladministrationperiodand safety
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Compare Vincristine to Sirolimus for Treatment of High Risk Vascular Tumors NCT02110069 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• Sirolimus With Cyclophosphamide and Topotecan for Pediatric/Adolescent Relapsed and Refractory Solid Tumors NCT01670175 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• SARC031: MEK Inhibitor Selumetinib (AZD6244) in Combination With the mTOR Inhibitor Sirolimus for Patients With Malignant Peripheral Nerve Sheath Tumors NCT03433183 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• VEGF Receptor Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor Axitinib in Children With Recurrent or Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02164838 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Everolimus for Children With NF1 Chemotherapy-Refractory Radiographic Progressive Low Grade Gliomas NCT01158651 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.