Everolimus as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentcancerpatienttumoreverolimus
  Phrases that lowered it: hypersensitivitysuspectedthe trialproductsdisorder
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 28 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ESK981 and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04159896 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• ARN 509 Plus Everolimus in Men With Progressive Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer After Treatment With Abiraterone Acetate NCT02106507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Carboplatin, Everolimus, and Prednisone in Treating Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer That Progressed After Docetaxel NCT01051570 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Genetic and Molecular Mechanisms in Assessing Response in Patients With Prostate Cancer Receiving Enzalutamide Therapy NCT02099864 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.