Carboplatin, Everolimus, and Prednisone in Treating Patients With Metastatic Prostate Cancer That Progressed After Docetaxel

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2013-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: concurrentchronicsince priorheartcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsfastingbasedhormonetopical
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 120 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 37 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8512 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 35181 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• ARN 509 Plus Everolimus in Men With Progressive Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer After Treatment With Abiraterone Acetate NCT02106507 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• Everolimus as First-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT00976755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Dual mTOR Inhibitor MLN0128 in Advanced Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) Patients NCT02091531 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• ESK981 and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Metastatic Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT04159896 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Temsirolimus and Bevacizumab in Hormone-Resistant Metastatic Prostate Cancer That Did Not Respond to Chemotherapy NCT01083368 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.