Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Pain Due to Osteoarthritis Taking Either WHO Step I or Step II Analgesics or no Regular Analgesic

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: iibrainfunctiongreater thanpresence of
  Phrases that lowered it: visitreleasethe trialthe screeningparticipant
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 40 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Pain Due to Osteoarthritis Taking WHO Step III Analgesics But Showing a Lack of Tolerability. NCT00982280 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Chronic Low Back Pain Taking WHO Step III Analgesics But Showing a Lack of Tolerability NCT00986258 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Chronic Low Back Pain Taking Either WHO Step I or Step II Analgesics or no Regular Analgesics NCT00983385 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• A Mechanism Based Proof of Concept Study of the Effects of Duloxetine in the Treatment of Patients With Osteoarthritic Knee Pain NCT04224584 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of CNTX-6970 in Subjects With Knee Osteoarthritis Pain. NCT05025787 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.