Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Chronic Low Back Pain Taking WHO Step III Analgesics But Showing a Lack of Tolerability

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2011-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: paindefinedbrainchroniclow back
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectparticipantsparticipantefficacysafety
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Chronic Low Back Pain Taking Either WHO Step I or Step II Analgesics or no Regular Analgesics NCT00983385 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Pain Due to Osteoarthritis Taking WHO Step III Analgesics But Showing a Lack of Tolerability. NCT00982280 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials terminated
• Evaluation of Effectiveness and Tolerability of Tapentadol Hydrochloride in Subjects With Severe Pain Due to Osteoarthritis Taking Either WHO Step I or Step II Analgesics or no Regular Analgesic NCT00983073 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• A Study to Look at Tapentadol Tablets in Children and Adolescents in Pain NCT02151682 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Hydrocodone Bitartrate Extended-Release Tablets (CEP-33237) for Relief of Moderate to Severe Pain in Patients With Osteoarthritis or Low Back Pain Who Require Opioid Treatment for an Extended Period of Time NCT01240863 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.