Phase III Study in Refractory Behcet's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2010-07-31, after 2009-10-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellpatientstherapyrecurrenttreated
Phrases that lowered it: vaccinescreeningexacerbationthe studyto assess -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 189 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 214 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- secukinumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- 38 Week Extension Study to CAIN457C2303 NCT01093846 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Quiescent Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01032915 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials terminated
- Safety and Efficacy of AIN457 in Patients With Active Non-infectious Uveitis NCT01095250 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
- Efficacy of Gevokizumab in the Treatment of Patients With Behçet's Disease Uveitis (EYEGUARD™-B) NCT01965145 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Interferon α2a Versus Cyclosporine for Refractory Behçet's Disease Uveitis NCT03209219 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.